The US$184 Billion Cost of Getting Developing Asia Online Is Mostly Handsets and Training

A study by GSMA Intelligence for the Asian Development Bank (ADB), announced on 14 October 2026, puts the cost of connecting the offline adults of developing Asia and the Pacific by 2030 at US$316 billion. Private companies and consumers are expected to supply US$132 billion of that on current market conditions. The other US$184 billion is the shortfall the report expects without policy changes or outside financing. Handsets account for US$53 billion of it and basic digital skills training for US$51 billion, together 56 per cent.

The study covers 42 markets and 4.3 billion people. Of those, 98 per cent live within reach of a 4G network, and 1.1 billion of them do not use it. This article tests a narrower claim that follows from the report's own figures. Most of the money goes to what a person needs once the signal is there, a handset and the skill to use it, and the report's cheaper scenarios depend on handset prices that component costs have pushed up since the end of 2025.

What the report counts

The study separates two kinds of offline. About 100 million people, just over 2 per cent of the region, live outside any mobile broadband coverage. The other 1.1 billion, 27 per cent of the covered population, live inside it and do not use mobile internet. The report counts someone as connected if they used mobile internet in the previous three months, including on a shared device. On that measure, adoption rose from 62 per cent of the population in 2020 to 71 per cent in 2025. Counting only people who own or primarily use a device, the figure is 63 per cent.

The cost model works on adults aged 15 and over and the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) target of 95 per cent adoption by 2030. The report puts 4G and 5G use among adults at 68 per cent at the end of 2025 and expects 77 per cent by 2030 on current conditions, an 18-point shortfall. The US$132 billion of expected spending reaches about one-third of the offline population, around 310 million people. The remaining 650 million need the US$184 billion, an average of about US$283 each (APCG calculation from the report's figures).

The model assumes US$100 per user for a device, including distribution, onboarding and financing costs on top of the handset price, and a one-off US$40 per person for basic skills training. It leaves out fixed networks, cloud and compute capacity, and spending on cybersecurity and scams.

The split holds in every subregion

According to the report, the usage gap is the larger problem in all five subregions, although the coverage gap is material in two: 11 per cent of the population in Central and West Asia and 16 per cent in the Pacific developing member countries. Adoption runs from 93 per cent in East Asia, mostly China, to 36 per cent in the Pacific. Southeast Asia added almost 20 percentage points in five years to reach 76 per cent, from a base where 4G already covered 96 per cent of people in 2020.

Handset type shows a similar spread. Across the region, 93 per cent of mobile internet users are on a 4G or 5G smartphone, but 180 million subscribers, 7 per cent, still use a feature phone or 3G smartphone. The share is 23 per cent in Central and West Asia and 59 per cent in the Pacific. The report adds that countries where more than 90 per cent of users are on 4G or 5G show 50 per cent higher data use per user.

Data is affordable for most people, and handsets are not

The report's affordability figures explain the shape of the budget. An entry-level internet-enabled device cost 31 per cent of monthly gross national income (GNI) per capita in 2025, above the 20 per cent threshold the report treats as affordable, and 61 per cent for the poorest 40 per cent of the population. One gigabyte of data cost an average 1.7 per cent of monthly GNI per capita, under the ITU's 2 per cent target, and 3.3 per cent for the poorest 40 per cent. In Southeast Asia, the poorest 40 per cent face an entry-level device that costs more than 70 per cent of monthly income.

Cheaper phones exist. The report lists smartphones and smart feature phones at US$10 to US$50 depending on the country, and smart feature phones such as the Jazz Digit in Pakistan at US$20 to US$30. In 2024, however, devices under US$50 made up 0.2 per cent of shipments in Asia and the Pacific and devices from US$50 to US$99 made up 12 per cent, according to Counterpoint Research data cited in GSMA's 2025 connectivity report. Consumers in the survey rank battery life, durability, speed, storage and camera quality as very important, which pulls demand toward the pricier end.

The cheaper scenarios depend on handset prices falling

The headline figure assumes US$100 per user. The scenarios that shrink the bill assume less. At US$50 per device the handset line falls from US$53 billion to US$14 billion, and at US$30 to US$3 billion. Halving both handset cost and training cost, to US$50 and US$20, takes the total gap from US$184 billion to US$119 billion. Handsets account for US$39 billion of that US$65 billion reduction.

Component prices have moved the other way. In an announcement dated 15 September 2026, GSMA said memory prices rose by more than 100 per cent between the third quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026 and by a further 80 to 90 per cent in the second quarter, citing Counterpoint Research. The announcement said global smartphone shipments are forecast to post their steepest annual decline on record, led by the sub-US$100 segment, and that the US$30 and US$20 handset price points, which GSMA had estimated could be affordable for about 1.6 billion and 2.2 billion people respectively, are now out of reach. Counterpoint data reported by Digit.in on 29 September showed handsets priced under Rs 10,000 in India up about 32 per cent on average in the first half of 2026, with shipments in that band down 65 per cent year on year.

The report mentions the memory price rise in a footnote and says there is little scope to cut device costs, because they come mainly from the bill of materials. It does not say how a US$50 all-in device would be reached.

Why the price rise may matter less than it looks

Three points limit the damage to the report's case.

1. The base case already assumes US$100 per user, double the US$50 scenario. Higher prices for sub-US$50 phones strain the cheap scenarios. They change the US$184 billion headline only if all-in device costs rise above US$100, a figure that already carries distribution and financing.
2. Non-users in the six Asian markets surveyed rarely name handset cost as their main barrier. In GSMA's consumer survey (2025, with the Philippines from 2024), handset cost was the single most important reason for not using mobile internet for 10 per cent of aware non-users in Bangladesh, 8 per cent in India, 10 per cent in Indonesia, 13 per cent in Pakistan, 7 per cent in the Philippines and 9 per cent in Sri Lanka. In the seven African markets in the same table it ranged from 33 per cent to 54 per cent. In Asia the most cited reasons were reading and writing difficulties in Bangladesh (26 per cent), India (17 per cent) and Pakistan (32 per cent), scams or fraud in Indonesia (12 per cent) and the Philippines (23 per cent), and data cost in Sri Lanka (19 per cent). The two measures differ: the survey ranks the first reason each non-user gives, while the budget multiplies a unit cost by a headcount, so handset cost can be a minority answer and still the largest line.

1. The economics still favour spending on the report's numbers. GSMA Intelligence estimates a US$230 billion rise in GDP by 2030 and an economic return of 20 to 100 per cent on financing the gap. The estimate draws on published studies linking a 10 per cent rise in mobile broadband penetration to a 1 to 3 per cent rise in GDP. It also comes from organisations with an interest in the outcome: the foreword describes ADB as a financier and GSMA speaks for its operator members. The figure cannot be verified from outside.

The test the report does not settle is whether people who receive a handset and training keep using mobile internet. The policy chapter says some evidence suggests fully subsidised devices are often sold or traded down for cash. The report gives no estimate of how many newly connected users would stop, and its 650 million counts people connected by 2030. Nobody can yet say what a sustained connection costs per person.

What to watch

The report's main uncertainty is the cost per sustained user. Three published sources will show whether the assumptions hold.

1. Handset shipments by price band. Counterpoint and GSMA figures for sub-US$100 smartphones in Asia and the Pacific, against the 2024 shares of 0.2 per cent under US$50 and 12 per cent from US$50 to US$99.
2. The next GSMA Consumer Survey. Whether handset cost rises above the current 7 to 13 per cent as the main reason for staying offline in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines and Sri Lanka.
3. Universal service fund reporting. The report says funds in India and Malaysia have started to support adoption as well as coverage. Published disbursement and per-person cost data from those funds will show whether US$40 per person for basic skills training holds.

Sources: ADB and GSMA Intelligence, Closing the Mobile Connectivity Gap in Developing Asia and the Pacific (October 2026); GSMA announcements of 15 September and 14 October 2026; GSMA Consumer Survey data as published in the report; Counterpoint Research data as reported by GSMA and Digit.in.